Am I a genius or just crazy?
By For those who read my last blog, I tooted my own horn about how I made a Kenny Tran-like “sick call” with bottom pair on the bubble. In this instance my instincts were right and I went on to win the tournament.
In the story I’m about to tell you I was called “crazy”, but if you think about it logically (in my mind) it’s a great play!
The setup: I’m playing Saturday in the $340 buy-in, $70,000 Battle on the Border at Diamond Jo Casino, 141 entrants. For those who haven’t made the trip, DJ has a great event center to host these events and the tournaments are a fantastic time.
My state of mind: I came into this tournament riding a hot streak. I’ve won 2 of the last 5 live events I’ve played and have won 3 online tourneys in the last two weeks sprinkled with a 2nd a and a couple other final tables. I attribute a large part of my success to making high % moves in key situations despite what I have in my hand.
The story: There are 12 people remaining. 15 was the money so at this point I was guaranteed to triple my buy-in, thus cashing was not a concern. We are playing 6-handed. I’m in the big blind with roughly $110,000 behind. The blinds are $4,000-$8000 with a $1,000 ante. So before the flop we have $18,000 in the pot.
The gentleman on my right in the small blind was the chip leader. He had roughly $350,000. He and I had clashed a few times, I made a big lay down to him on a raise, re-raise, all-in situation, that hand is a story in itself. Turned out I was ahead but we were racing.
This guy is a really good player and playing a big stack well. He’s raising into 2 of every 3 pots. Though in all situations where he was forced to show down, he was showing big hands. It was clear he was running well on top of playing well.
The Point: Everyone folded to him in the small blind, he raised to $25K. I had played out this exact scenario in my head as the dealer was still shuffling. If it played out like this, I was launching with any two cards. My reasoning is this….. he was operating in a fairly aggressive manner, his raise-range is extremely wide here. If I were in his shoes and had that stack, I would raise with close to any hand here including any pair, any face card, anything suited or connected. There’s too much in the pot pre-flop to not try to get it.
I’m trying to position myself to win at this point, every six hands I don’t play I lose $18,000. Before long I have no fold equity. Re-raising him another $85,000 is still a lot of fold equity, and because I know he is a good player he will be willing to lay down any middle pair here, any mid-ace, obviously any garbage. His call range is probably 10’s or higher, AK, maybe AQ. He’s not going to be one to race off his big stack. I’m going to take down the pot here a large % of the time.
I look down at 10-5 suited clubs. Like I said, the hand was fairly irrelevant. This was a good spot for this move. Odds are low that he has 10’s or higher on a standard position raise in this spot. Even if he has AK or AQ or any two overs, I’m still 38% to win the hand.
I push, he calls with AK. He flops an Ace and I go down 12th. The players at the table think I’m nuts for making that move with 10-5, but I stand by the play. It’s a situational play you need to have in your arsenal no matter what your cards are. I’m playing the odds, I have fold equity and likely several outs if called. As I said, a large % of the time I take down a nice pot here pre-flop. This time it didn’t work, that happens. But similar plays at “key times” have padded my stack and allowed me to win many more tournaments that I use to simply just cash in.
If anyone has any thoughts or comments regarding this play, feel free to email bryan@mnpokermag.com to discuss, I enjoy hearing your opinions.
Peace out!
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