Back on the SNG horse – Punishing the bubble

In recent weeks, I’ve been able to scrounge up enough free time between magazine duties and Vikings collapses to hammer out  a bunch of SNGs.

In the past, I’ve bounced around from cash games to multi-table tournaments, but my bread and butter has always been 9-man SNGs. I generally play three or four at a time on Full Tilt.

It’s funny how your game evolves over time. I’ve been a “winning” poker player for several years now, but if the 2010 version of myself would sit down and play against the 2005 version, the 2010 version would crush.

The most important aspect of my SNG game these days is thinking one level higher than everyone else at the table. And really, that’s what successful poker is all about. Like making the jump from A ball to AA to AAA to the Major Leagues in baseball, each level causes you to analyze and re-adjust your thinking.

I’ve found that most players don’t understand the importance of “bubble” play in 9-man SNGs — when 4 or 5 players remain. This is where tournaments are won.

In the past, I would take some chances on the bubble, but would generally avoid big confrontations and try to conserve chips, hoping other players would do the dirty work. With this strategy, I would almost always slip into the money with the fewest chips, if I made it to the money at all, that is.

Now, I’m doing just the opposite. I’m pushing players to the limit with, in some cases, almost any two cards, banking on the fact that the middle stacks WILL NOT call themselves all in on the bubble without JJ, QQ, KK, AA, or AK. A lot of middle stacks will even fold hands like AJ or AQ to an all-in reraise, because they are nervous about busting before the short stacks.

Scenario:

4 players left, 3 get paid. Blinds 80/160.

- Player A (4,900 chips)
- Me (4,300 chips)
- Villain (2,600 chips)
- Shorty (1,200 chips)

Shorty folds under the gun, and Villain (who has been playing pretty solid) raises to 400. Player A folds in the small blind, and action is on me.

Now, after raising to 400, Villain leaves himself with 2,200 behind, which is still 1,000 more chips than Shorty has. And let’s face it, that’s what most players look at during SNG bubble time — how many chips do I have compared to the guy who might bust next?

I look down at K5 of hearts. In reality, it doesn’t matter what I have here. Villain’s 400 raise is dead money, unless he has AA, KK, QQ or AK. If I shove all in here, there’s almost NO WAY he will call me (unless he’s a very good player who knows what my strategy is… that’s what starts to happen as you move up the buy-in ladder). Villain doesn’t want to bust when he knows Shorty is on the verge.

Of course, I shove K5. Villain lets the timer run down and, as expected. I pick up 640 chips and move into the chip lead. Easy money.

Some people will undoubtedly ask, “How can you shove K5 in that spot? What if he wakes up with a monster?”

1.) Unless he’s been playing rock-tight the entire time, there’s a good chance Villain doesn’t have a monster. Even if he has been playing rock-tight, he’s still likely to fold hands like A10, KQ, AJ, 1010, and maybe even AQ in this spot, because he doesn’t want to go bust w/ another guy so short-stacked.

2.) Even if he wakes up with QQ, and I lose the pot, I still have 1,700 chips left. Would I make a similar move if stacks were more even? Possibly. Depends on the opponent.

The bottom line is this… With 4 and 5 players left in a SNG, there’s a TON of dead money out there when middle stacks open raise. Take advantage of it and punish them.

~ PMac