Negreanu’s new blog is brilliant
Currently hanging out in the Grand Casino Mille Lacs event center, hammering out some last minute content for the March issue of Minnesota Poker Magazine, and watching the daily $50 noon tournament. In a few hours, this poker room will be full of players playing MSPT satellites, and Grand Series Event 4. Good times.
I came across Daniel Negreanu’s latest blog over at Full Contact Poker. I follow Negreanu on Twitter, and he always has entertaining things to say, both poker-related and non-poker-related.
His latest blog, however, was all about poker. Tournament poker, specifically, and how times have changed drastically over the last 5-10 years.
Ever wonder why you don’t see guys like T.J. Cloutier crushing tournaments anymore? Daniel explains why in a BRILLIANT blog post. Below is an excerpt. You can read the whole thing on his website.
I’ve been thinking a lot about poker recently. Watching it, learning, etc. Soooo much has changed it’s difficult to even know where to start.
When I started playing tournament poker, one of the absolute best in the game was T.J. Cloutier. I always did well against T.J. because I felt like I had a good understanding of what he was trying to do at the table. T.J. would play pretty solid, not get too crazy aggressive at all, and then sporadically he’d make a “play” by coming over the top before the flop with nothing. He’d use his tight image to build up what Phil Laak calls “Dormancy Vig,” meaning, that he’d get away with his random bluffs because his opponents would give him tons of credit.
So T.J., and to a lesser degree John Juanda, essentially looked for spots where they could push someone around. Often their reads were solely tell based. T.J. might wait for the young kid in the 5 seat to raise it with his left hand very quickly, and T.J. would know that meant the kid didn’t have it. When he had it, the kid would hum and haw, take his time, and then put in a soft raise with both hands.
When you spot stuff like that, and are good at it, this tournament strategy becomes very effective and that methodology was one of the key reasons T.J. put up such consistent results. He wasn’t playing the cards, he was always playing the man.
It was really just that simple in the old days. Most of the tournaments didn’t require you to play much deep stacked poker, so picking up pots before the flop became “enough” to be successful. You didn’t really need to understand how to break down a hand. You didn’t have to be all that good at post flop play. You could use this strategy, fire a strong continuation bet, and then kind of just give up from there.
He goes on to explain why Phil Hellmuth’s ego might prevent him from ever being one of the top players in the world ever again, and why online players tend to have a broader knowledge of tournament poker than old school players. It’s a very solid read.
February 18th, 2010 at 9:10 pm
At first glance, Negreanu’s theory seems plausible. However, he seems to be too harsh and subjective when it comes to Hellmuth. So Hellmuth had a “bad year” and only cashed 6 times @ the WSOP. But Negreanu fails to explain how only 2.5 years ago, Hellmuth beat two thousand six hundred players to win his 11th WSOP bracelet. Is he claiming that the game has radically changed in the last two years? There were no internet poker players in 2007? Hellmuth’s recent performances can easily be explained by variance and luck in tournament poker. (Playing more than one month a year, would probably help too.)
February 20th, 2010 at 9:33 am
Where I like Daniel’s theory, I do kinda agree with what he has to say about Hellmuth. I really do think that Hellmuth expects anyone that has not won a bracelet to completely bend to his will at the table. Yes, I know that the blowups are part of TV and his “aura” but I truly believe that any decent poker player can beat any other decent poker player in any given hand or tourney. You have to evolve when the craft you choose evolves or you will be left behind.
I work in IT and I am constantly reading white papers, books, manuals, websites, etc…etc…etc…all the time so I can keep up. I’m working on a degree in Philosophy and not only am I constantly reading the classics but I’m also reading all the new arguments and changes coming out so I can stay with my peers. Hellmuth needs to do the same or he will become a footnote instead of the poker force he should be.
Just my humble opinion.