Bottom Two, and the River

It’s been awhile since I’ve discussed a little strategy, so I thought I’d knock off some cobwebs, and give it a whirl!

I was playing in a typical 8-16 game a few days ago, and was in the big blind when this hand came up.  An early position player raised.  Three players behind him called, as did the small blind.  I looked down at the 2s-5s, and figured since I’d be closing the betting, and getting 11 to 1 on a call with a little suited connector, I’d come along for the ride.  I called.

The flop was 2c-5c-Qc.  The small blind checked.  This is a strange flop for me.  With so many players in the hand, it’s altogether possible that I’m beat.  However, it seems equally likely that my hand is currently best, and demands protection.  I decide to bet, and see what sort of aggression I get in response.  I concluded this was the better play than check-raising, as I may allow stranglers in for a cheaper price, particularly if the pre-flop raiser chooses to raise my bet with A-A, K-K, etc.  The pre-flop raiser just called me, as did the small blind.  The other three players folded.

The turn was the 9d.  The small blind once again checked.  This street was the easiest decision of the hand.  I have to bet.  Checking allows a free card to a flush, of course.  Beyond that, however, I can establish my hand with much more accuracy here than with a flop bet.  I like to think of the turn as “truth street.”  That is to say, if I’m up against a flopped flush, I’ll most likely know it right then and there, by somebody raising my bet.  Both of my opponents call.

The river was the Kd.  The small blind checked yet again.  I thought for a long moment before deciding how to act on the river.  It was an odd decision.  The flop and turn bets were both to establish my hand, and to protect my fragile holding.  River bets, however, serve an absolutely different purpose.  There is no more protection.  There is only the best hand and the worst hand.  If you have the best, you want to get called with the worst.  If you have the worst, you only want to bet if the best will fold.

What could my opponents have?  I figure the small-blind for a large club that missed, but was it the K of clubs?  If so, there is certainly value in a bet.  What could the pre-flop raiser have?  A-K is altogether possible, and again, a bet would be wise.  Could he have K-K?  Could he have J-10?  These are possibilities, but not likelihoods.  I come to the conclusion that another bet is indeed wise, for two reasons.  One, there is a very good chance that my hand is good.  Coupled with that is the fact that my opponents could very easily have hands with which they can call, and not beat me.  That’s value.

Secondly, however, is how my opponents would react even if they had me beat.  Let’s say the small blind had K-Q, and rivered top two-pair.  Or perhaps the pre-flop raiser had J-10, with a club, and back-doored a straight.  In either case, it would be very difficult for them to raise.  I bet the hand from beginning to end, and my hand is far too likely to be a set, or a flush.  Most players would just call with hands like these against a man driving action the entire way.  What that means is, checking and betting are virtually equal.  If I bet, and they call me with a better hand, I am out one bet on a misperceived value bet.  If, on the other hand, I check, and the pre-flop raiser bets, I’m going to call anyway.  I’m not laying down two-pair on the river for one bet.  Any way you look at it, one bet is going in the pot.

The only slight hesitation I had, even after this drawn-out reasoning, was my position versus my opponents.  If I had been first to act, this reasoning is very sound.  Because I’m second to act, however, there is a small possibility that the opponent to my right has K-Q and has checked.  There is also the outside chance that one of them has been slow-playing a much larger hand to the river.

Thoughts?

(I did bet.  I did get called in both spots.  I did win the hand.  They each mucked, without showing)

Jacob "Jaymind" Westlin is a semi-professional limit hold'em player with a strong, sarcastic wit. Jaymind also frequently contributes to Minnesota Poker Magazine's monthly publication. Email Jaymind at jayjay083@hotmail.com